RB’s going where?

Posted on 12. Apr, 2010 by Jesse in Articles

Football fans can thank the NFL this year. Not only is the league draft viewable in primetime, but we also get an extra day of coverage. While traditionalists may second guess the move to a Thursday night slot in April, league brain wizards knew exactly what they were doing.  Fantasy freaks around the country will now be tuned in for three straight days of draft action (as opposed to just two); wanting to see where prospects land. Fans will always follow their favorite teams in the draft, but experienced fantasy owners can multitask.  In addition to watching how the Vikings address needs, I’ll also be focused on the tailbacks. Fantasy’s top producers have long been running backs, and RB is a young man’s position. Success happens when opportunity and preparedness meet. That said, here’s who I like, and where I hope they go.

1. C.J. Spiller, Clemson RB - Ideal fit: Seahawks A true game breaker, Spiller is the unanimous choice as the top rookie fantasy prospect heading into the draft. He’s got a swagger, runs well enough inside, and can strike from distance. It’s a bit of a reach to see him going inside the top 11, but if Miami passes at #12, Spiller could land softly to Seattle at #14. Such a scenario would almost certainly maximize his value from a statistical standpoint, and it’s hard to think C.J. would fall much further.  With just Julius Jones and Justin Forsett in front of him, Spiller would quickly become the team’s top offensive threat. In Seattle, Spiller could become a star. By the way, the Chris Johnson comparisons may be a bit premature.  Bad fits: 49ers, Giants, Oakland
2. Ryan Matthews, Fresno St. RB – Ideal fit: Texans    Many draft experts think Matthews’ game translates to the professional ranks better than Spiller’s does. While I stop short on that assertion, I recognize a Matthews/Kubiak marriage could do for fantasy owners what the Pitt/Jolie marriage did for orphans. The Texans are certainly a team on the rise and with Matthews in the fold, Steve Slaton could return to a more natural role as a complimentary player. Matthews has a size/speed combination few others in this class can boast, so he’s one to watch closely. If he falls to #28 and lands in San Diego, turn out the lights. Bad fits: Giants, Steelers, Bengals
3. Jahvid Best, Cal RB – Ideal fit: Packers Best’s detractors always cite his size as a negative, but recent trends in the NFL may be changing those age-old assumptions. We’ve recently seen players like Darren Sproles and Jamal Charles explode onto the scene as big-play weapons in the running game. If the grind-it-out game is fading, Best’s prospects must be rising. It’s hard to project him as a first-rounder, but Green Bay would likely love to add him to their mix at #56 if he falls that far. Bad fits: Bucs, Patriots, 49ers
4. Joe McKnight, USC RB – Ideal fit: Chargers  Despite the glaring hole at tailback, I don’t see the Bolts spending a first-rounder at the position unless Matthews or Spiller would fall. Since that seems highly unlikely, look for a guy like McKnight to be targeted with the #40 selection. McKnight would love his role in this wide-open offense, and has home-run ability packaged with decent size. Sproles would have to do most of the 3rd down work, but McKnight would be in line for very nice production. Hey, if LaDainian Tomlinson could score 12 TD’s in this offense last year, McKnight could do more. Bad fits:Redskins, Raiders, 49ers
5. Montario Hardesty, Tenn RB – Ideal fit: Dolphins The Ronnie Brown era has had its moments, but with another season-ending injury suffered last year, it is now time to address the future of the position in South Beach. Hardesty is a do-everything back who could eventually supplant Brown, and he may well be available in the early third-round at #73. Hardesty hasn’t had as much pub as a few others in his draft class, but should he land in the right situation, Montario could make an impact quickly. Bad fits: Bucs, Patriots, Raiders

This draft class is exceedingly deep at the running back position, with as many as 10 guys who could succeed at the next level. But like Tiger and his mistresses, it’s all about opportunity. So who else should we watch closely during the draft?

Bruisers Anthony Dixon, Toby Gerhart, Jonathan Dwyer and LeGarrette Blount will all be given a chance to compete somewhere. Any of these guys could perform well in short-yardage roles, but need to be paired with a smallish burner. Still, there are no guarantees in this bunch. It’s fun to speculate, but in all likelihood at least two of these guys won’t do anything noteworthy in their NFL careers.

Finally, Dexter McCluster is a versatile threat who could provide pop in the big play department, but it’s hard to see him as a fantasy force anytime soon. Ben Tate is also worth monitoring, depending upon who grabs him.

The lifespan of the NFL running back has shortened, meaning fantasy owners need to find quality players early in their respective runs. Dynasty players should find several prospects with bright futures in the 2010 tailback class, and fantasy nation will be tuned in April 22-24th. We’ll re-evaluate things as the summer progresses, but for now, let’s see who gets the best opportunities.