RB’s going where?
Posted on 12. Apr, 2010 by Jesse in Articles
Football fans can thank the NFL this year. Not only is the league draft viewable in primetime, but we also get an extra day of coverage. While traditionalists may second guess the move to a Thursday night slot in April, league brain wizards knew exactly what they were doing. Fantasy freaks around the country will now be tuned in for three straight days of draft action (as opposed to just two); wanting to see where prospects land. Fans will always follow their favorite teams in the draft, but experienced fantasy owners can multitask. In addition to watching how the Vikings address needs, I’ll also be focused on the tailbacks. Fantasy’s top producers have long been running backs, and RB is a young man’s position. Success happens when opportunity and preparedness meet. That said, here’s who I like, and where I hope they go.
- C.J. Spiller, Clemson RB - Ideal fit: Seahawks A true game breaker, Spiller is the unanimous choice as the top rookie fantasy prospect heading into the draft. He’s got a swagger, runs well enough inside, and can strike from distance. It’s a bit of a reach to see him going inside the top 11, but if Miami passes at #12, Spiller could land softly to Seattle at #14. Such a scenario would almost certainly maximize his value from a statistical standpoint, and it’s hard to think C.J. would fall much further. With just Julius Jones and Justin Forsett in front of him, Spiller would quickly become the team’s top offensive threat. In Seattle, Spiller could become a star. By the way, the Chris Johnson comparisons may be a bit premature. Bad fits: 49ers, Giants, Oakland
- Ryan Matthews, Fresno St. RB – Ideal fit: Texans Many draft experts think Matthews’ game translates to the professional ranks better than Spiller’s does. While I stop short on that assertion, I recognize a Matthews/Kubiak marriage could do for fantasy owners what the Pitt/Jolie marriage did for orphans. The Texans are certainly a team on the rise and with Matthews in the fold, Steve Slaton could return to a more natural role as a complimentary player. Matthews has a size/speed combination few others in this class can boast, so he’s one to watch closely. If he falls to #28 and lands in San Diego, turn out the lights. Bad fits: Giants, Steelers, Bengals
- Jahvid Best, Cal RB – Ideal fit: Packers Best’s detractors always cite his size as a negative, but recent trends in the NFL may be changing those age-old assumptions. We’ve recently seen players like Darren Sproles and Jamal Charles explode onto the scene as big-play weapons in the running game. If the grind-it-out game is fading, Best’s prospects must be rising. It’s hard to project him as a first-rounder, but Green Bay would likely love to add him to their mix at #56 if he falls that far. Bad fits: Bucs, Patriots, 49ers
- Joe McKnight, USC RB – Ideal fit: Chargers Despite the glaring hole at tailback, I don’t see the Bolts spending a first-rounder at the position unless Matthews or Spiller would fall. Since that seems highly unlikely, look for a guy like McKnight to be targeted with the #40 selection. McKnight would love his role in this wide-open offense, and has home-run ability packaged with decent size. Sproles would have to do most of the 3rd down work, but McKnight would be in line for very nice production. Hey, if LaDainian Tomlinson could score 12 TD’s in this offense last year, McKnight could do more. Bad fits:Redskins, Raiders, 49ers
- Montario Hardesty, Tenn RB – Ideal fit: Dolphins The Ronnie Brown era has had its moments, but with another season-ending injury suffered last year, it is now time to address the future of the position in South Beach. Hardesty is a do-everything back who could eventually supplant Brown, and he may well be available in the early third-round at #73. Hardesty hasn’t had as much pub as a few others in his draft class, but should he land in the right situation, Montario could make an impact quickly. Bad fits: Bucs, Patriots, Raiders
This draft class is exceedingly deep at the running back position, with as many as 10 guys who could succeed at the next level. But like Tiger and his mistresses, it’s all about opportunity. So who else should we watch closely during the draft?
Bruisers Anthony Dixon, Toby Gerhart, Jonathan Dwyer and LeGarrette Blount will all be given a chance to compete somewhere. Any of these guys could perform well in short-yardage roles, but need to be paired with a smallish burner. Still, there are no guarantees in this bunch. It’s fun to speculate, but in all likelihood at least two of these guys won’t do anything noteworthy in their NFL careers.
Finally, Dexter McCluster is a versatile threat who could provide pop in the big play department, but it’s hard to see him as a fantasy force anytime soon. Ben Tate is also worth monitoring, depending upon who grabs him.
The lifespan of the NFL running back has shortened, meaning fantasy owners need to find quality players early in their respective runs. Dynasty players should find several prospects with bright futures in the 2010 tailback class, and fantasy nation will be tuned in April 22-24th. We’ll re-evaluate things as the summer progresses, but for now, let’s see who gets the best opportunities.
Shonn a Greene Machine
Posted on 01. Mar, 2010 by Jesse in Articles
Shonn Greene is about to be the man. The ferocious rookie took the NFL by storm in the postseason, and in the process, showed the Jets brass that he has what it takes to carry the load. Greene is the perfect fit for this smashmouth offense, and will now only be sharing with a yet-to-be healthy Leon Washington. Yes, this is a striking development.
Not striking because Greene doesn’t deserve such an opportunity, but surprising given the success of Thomas Jones for the past two seasons. Jones was solid again in ‘09, posting a career-high 1402 rushing yards, but he’ll be 32 at the start of next season, he was expendable given his bloated salary. I should note again, I think Jones has a lot left in the tank. Look out if he lands in San Diego, but that is another discussion; another debate.
I’m here right now to gush about Greene, and pontificate about his prowess. I had a feeling that the decision to trade up for him was calculated, and that plan is now unfolding. I’m penciling Greene in for around 325 carries (Jones had 331 last year), and 15 TD’s. After all, Leon Washington will do more 3rd down duty and special teams stuff as he returns to form from a devastating leg injury. The team has sacrificed Jones to pay Leon for his loyalty, but the workload will be shouldered by the kid from Iowa. Just a few weeks away from St. Patties day, this year I’m pullin’ out my new (second) favorite color… Cha-ching, let the Greene Machine ring!
Shanny to Skins: A Change you can believe in?
Posted on 06. Jan, 2010 by Jesse in Articles
Well, it’s official. After days of speculation, the Redskins have announced that Mike Shanahan will take over football operations and serve as coach of the team. ‘Skins owner Dan Snyder wasted little time firing Jim Zorn (was Zorn forced to ride on the wing of the plane after Washington’s week 17 collapse?), and Snyder has found a capable replacement. But will this marriage work?
Certainly, a once-proud franchise like Washington should have a stellar coach. Let’s forget the Norv Turner experiment, the Saban debacle, the one-year turn of Marty Schottenheimer or the Steve Spurrier disaster. Lets especially forget that this club also gave Richie Petibtbon a year at the helm back in ‘93. Yeah, Richie-freaking-Petibtbon. Realistically, Washington’s leadership (in NFL coaching circles AND in congress) has been especially weak on a highly frequent basis in the past few decades. A familiar theme is emerging; Washington needed a change.
Shanahan comes to town with an air about him. He’s not Joe Gibbs, but Shanny does own two Big Rings. Still, questions do lurk about Shanahan himself. Last season’s collapse in Denver revealed many holes in his staff, and his leadership came into question. Shanahan detractors will point out that since John Elway’s retirement, Shanny has won just one playoff game. Despite this post-season gloom, Shanahan can build a juggernaut offensively, and thus excitement in Washington is justly deserved. But will Shanahan’s change in leadership turn this underachieving group around?
Some people have blamed Daniel Snyder for the Redskins’ recent troubles, and it’s easy to see that logic. Snyder is the perpetually meddling owner of an annoying kind… with an air of elitism, his franchise has been anemic of late. The Hogs of yesteryear have faded, and this group needs a collective snout lift. Snyder does put his money where his mouth is though, and thus his fans can’t complain too badly. Still, will Danny Boy actually be able to stay out of Shanahan’s way? We’ll see.
This won’t be the first time in recent memory that leadership in Washington comes espousing change. But is change in and of itself a guarantee things will get better? Only time will tell.
Obviously ‘Skins fans are ready for something different.
MVPeyton
Posted on 18. Nov, 2009 by Jesse in Articles
Sometimes in sports you get a feeling that you’re watching history unfold before you. Michael hitting the shot over Ehlo, Kirk Gibson running the base paths in the World Series, or Mike Tyson falling flat against Buster Douglass. Moments like these are etched in our minds for a lifetime; woven into the fabric of history. This past Sunday night was one of those events, as Peyton Manning and Tom Brady went head-to-head in a game that is already being dubbed an instant classic.
But I’m not here to question Bill Belichick’s call on fourth-and-two. That’s already been done. Ad nauseam.
In stead, I’d rather focus on the reason why Belichick made that tough decision: Peyton Manning’s greatness. Manning has already won three NFL MVP awards, a Super Bowl MVP, and has set countless passing records throughout an illustrious 12-year career. He’s also never missed a start, and is basically a coach on the field. As crazy as it sounds, this may be the best football we’ve ever seen Manning play.
Manning has topped 300 passing yards in eight of nine games this season while leading his club to a 9-0 start. He’s also averaging more than 2 TD’s per game over that span, and completing nearly 70 percent of his passes. Simply put, Peyton Manning is the MVP of the league again. I know Drew Brees is playing at an extremely high level as well, but Peyton is doing all of this with a new coaching staff in place and without long-time hookup Marvin Harrison. My guess is that Manning would win in a head-to-head duel as well.
So as the season unfolds, sit back and enjoy Peyton’s reign. It may be a long time before we see another QB with his vision, composure, knowledge, and rocket arm again. He may not be flashy, but Peyton Manning might just be the best QB to ever play in the NFL. And there’s no way he’s retiring with only one Super Bowl ring. My guess is that we will get another one of those “magical moments” at some point down the road. Maybe even in February.
Vincent can Gogh
Posted on 29. Oct, 2009 by Jesse in Articles
Some players are above the fray. They make things seem effortless; even artistic. When the physical gifts such a player possesses merge with moment, magic happens. Many players are able to breathe the rarefied air occasionally, see: David Tyree’s miracle catch to lift the Giants over the Patriots. But elite-level players are able to maintain that “magic” for entire games… even entire seasons.
Two years ago Vincent Jackson was a very popular sleeper candidate in fantasy football circles. His size (6′5″) and leaping ability had many believing that Jackson would break out. He disappointed that year, and the club consequently brought in Chris Chambers via trade. Still, after a very solid season in 2008, Jackson is currently proving that he’s got the skills to be one of the best players in the league. He’s finally blowing up. Right now, Vincent Jackson is becoming one of the best big-play threats in the NFL. He paints his masterpeices with a very broad brush indeed.
Jackson is now the most talented athlete on a team that includes skill players such as LaDainian Tomlinson, Antonio Gates, Darren Sproles, and the aforementioned Chambers. Jackson has ridden his status as Philip Rivers’ go-to-guy to the top of the game. Currently ranking 6th in the league in receiving yardage, Jackson’s athletic ability make him an almost impossible cover. No one in the league has more catches (29) at such a high average (19.3) than Jackson does. Yes, Vincent Jackson is proving that he can be an elite receiver in the NFL.
And he’s doing so with a style that makes us take notice.
Patriot Gains
Posted on 23. Oct, 2009 by Jesse in Articles
Through the first five weeks of the NFL season, Patriots fans were a bit confused by their club. Tom Brady was back under center, Randy Moss was healthy, but inconsistency reigned supreme. Brady, still not fully recovered from last year’s ACL injury, had failed to follow through on many throws. Simply put, Gisele’s man looked timid. Frequent overthrows to Moss frustrated, and the Superfreak tried hard not to look upset. Wes Welker was also banged up, and the run game lacked any lustre.
But then… the Titans came to town… And the Pats pulled out the throwback uni’s… And it snowed.
Like any miracle-working balm would, Tenessee’s banged up secondary soothed all ills in week six. Brady, as I’m sure you already know, went off. Six total TD’s later (three to Moss), Brady seems ready to ascend back to the top of QB rankings everywhere. Moss and Welker again looked stellar, and Titans coach Jeff Fisher wished he could leave the stadium at halftime. The Pats performance stirred up memories of 2007.
The Patriots are still one of the best teams in the league despite their 4-2 record. The show should continue this weekend across the pond as the Pats will square off with Tampa Bay in England. Sir Brady and Sir Moss will be amazing again vs a horrendous secondary. Right now, only the Titans (who Brady roasted last week) have allowed more passing TD’s than the Bucs (who Brady will roast this week). That’s a good omen.
Also, Sir Laurence Maroney is getting his first start of the season after playing well last weekend. Maroney still has the most talent of any back on the roster, so I believe this offense will be it’s most dangerous with him carrying the bulk of the load on the ground. He will force opponents to honor the run, and from there the aerial dissection begins.
You didn’t really think the Pats were going to be mediocre this year, did you? The guns have been reloaded, and the Pats will be marching in England this Sunday.
Where’s Witten?
Posted on 22. Oct, 2009 by Jesse in Articles
At the beginning of the 2009 season many NFL experts would have agreed that Cowboys TE Jason Witten was one of the best players in the league at his position. Witten doesn’t have blazing speed, but he plays in a great system, has fantastic hands, and was supposedly the apple of Tony Romo’s eye. Witten was even supposed to see an uptick in production this year as Romo’s long-time top option, Terrell Owens, had relocated from America’s team to “North America’s Team.”
Well, through six weeks of NFL action, Witten has failed to meet expectations in a major way. Dude has scored just one TD, and that seems inexplicable.
So far this year Witten is averaging a paltry 51 yards per game. When you compare that to the 65.5 yards per game J-dub averaged in 2007-08, you see an immediate dropoff. We typically think that Witten is the kind of TE that can go off for big yardage, but that trend has been reversing of late. Witten has just one 100-yard performance in his last 19 games. Surprising? Yes. But why?
Witten is averaging a career-low 9.3 yards per catch this season, which is more than two yards less than his career average, so obviously the Cowboys aren’t focusing on getting him downfield. Unfortunately, the club isn’t targeting Witten in the red zone lately either as evidenced by his lack of TD-producing prowess. I’m worried this trend may not change any time soon either, as defenses continue to crowd the line and double-cover Witten. This often forces Tony Romo into bad throws, which only exacerbates the problem.
I know Jason is a talented guy, and I have to believe that he’s going to come around at some point in the future. Still, Miles Austin might be the most important part of this equation. If Austin can again cause defenses to put more focus downfield, Witten could again find open holes underneath. Until that happens though, don’t be surprised if Jason Witten continues to be harder to find than Waldo.
What can Brown do for you?
Posted on 14. Oct, 2009 by Jesse in Articles
Back in the mid-August flurry of hype we know as “draft season,” many predictions were thrown down. Cocky owners would boast about the guys on their keeper roster, and would speculate endlessly as such. We’ll, through five weeks of NFL action, many of those over-cooked prognostications have fallen flat on their collective faces. But some have not. This is an article about one that has not.
I was regularly drafting Ronnie Brown of the Dolphins in the fourth round of fantasy mocks throughout preseason. Taking what I believed to be a guy with top-ten skills there only made sense. I left the building with Ronnie after two of my four pay drafts, and have been espousing his upside potential since. Through five weeks, Ronnie Brown is playing better football than any RB in the NFL and is likely ranked near the top of RB scoring in every league in America. Simply put, the centerpiece of the league’s most interesting offense has been enthralling.
Brown is a fantastic athlete with a great frame. He can pound inside, can explode on the seams, and catches the ball with ease. The Dolphins started 0-3, but have since won back-to-back games after force-feeding the ball to Ronnie via the Wildcat formation. Given such an opportunity, Brown has responded admirably. Not only did he score the season saving TD in the waning moments of the Dolphins Monday night win over the Jets, but Brown has now scored 6 TD’s in his last five contests. Brown has long had huge game capability, and his three multi TD games so far this season serve as a reminder that his 2007 ACL injury is finally healed entirely. Ronnie is already on pace to post nearly 2000 all-purpose yards, and his schedule for the rest of the season is mint. Eight of the Dolphins next ten games are against teams that don’t currently rank in the top-ten against the run.
Let me also remind you that Brown is scheduled to be an unrestricted free agent at the end of the season, so you know he’s going to run hard all year. Playing behind such a beastly offensive line also helps… so the question becomes: What can Brown do for you? Well, if I’m right, I think he can fuel fantasy championships.
Brown is on a bye this week, so now may actually be the best time for you to trade for his services. Don’t sleep; contact that Brown owner in your league and make an offer. You should end up being very glad you did. Ronnie appears ready to deliver straight through the holiday season.
Must Start: Pierre Garcon
Posted on 10. Oct, 2009 by Jesse in Articles
Ok, so I admit, the first four weeks of this column were an abject failure. I called out Ray Rice in week one, and McGahee blew up. I called out LenWhale White in week two and Chris Johnson goes crazy. Week three was the Felix Jones prediction, and Jones promptly gets hurt. I then tabbed Rashard Mendenhall as the guy I’d write about in week four, but busyness sidetracked me, and I never wrote the piece. I did, however, tell you a while ago that Mendy was going to be the man. Does that count?
Well anyway, I’m back to attempt my hand at a weekly column one more time. The premise is still the same: I pick a guy who is likely on your fantasy bench today, and tell you why you should start him tomorrow. With both fingers crossed, I give you Pierre Garcon, Colts WR.
For those of you who haven’t heard yet, Peyton Manning is a very good NFL quarterback. He’s also on fire this season, passing for more than 300 yards in all four of the Colts games so far this season. Manning is playing at an MVP level yet again, tossing nine TD’s and just three picks while getting the Colts off to a 4-0 start. Yes, Peyton produces.
But it takes more than just opportunity to get me to dub Garcon as my “Must Start” of the week. Pierre ain’t no softie. Since Anthony Gonzalez’ injury, Garcon has made the most of limited opportunities. He’s scored twice in a three game stretch, and has also posted 30+ yard receptions each week. At 6-foot, 210 pounds, Pierre has a great NFL body. Honestly, the guy kinda reminds me of Anquan Boldin. Big, powerful legs propel him, and single coverage seems inevitable with Dallas Clark and Reggie Wayne attracting all attention. I’m going to be bold here, but I see Garcon pushing Gonzalez back into the slot when he does return. Pierre is just solid.
Of course, I love Garcon this week because the Colts play the Titans in prime time. Tennessee is a mess in the defensive secondary, ranking dead last in yards allowed, and yeilding 10 passing TD’s through four games. Peyton Manning should embarrass them thoroughly, especially on national TV. Get Garcon into your lineup this weekend, and enjoy him. After all, his value will take a hit when Gonzalez returns a few weeks from now.
Others I considered: Marshawn Lynch against the Browns, LeSean McCoy against the Bucs, Miles Austin against the Chiefs, and Jerome Harrison against the Bills.
Lets all cross our fingers together.
Must Start: Felix Jones
Posted on 26. Sep, 2009 by Jesse in Articles
Ok, we’re not off to the best of starts with this Saturday night tradition. Ray Rice wasn’t a bad option in week one, but I whiffed big time on LenDale White last week. I’ll try harder here, and hopefully week three will yield a better result. The premise remains the same: I pick a guy who is probably sitting on your bench right now and explain why you should start him over players you currently have in your lineup.
Without wasting any more time, I give you the third name in this weekly column: Felix Jones, RB Cowboys.
If you haven’t watched Jones closely, let me fill you in on his game. The former Razorback has blinding speed, great moves in the open field, hits the hole with authority, and has been waiting for an opportunity to get extra touches. With Marion Barber looking more and more doubtful with each passing day, Monday night could be Felix’s coming-out party. The fact that Jones is playing the beatable Panthers defense makes this a huge plus, as does the back-to-the-wall nature of this game for the Cowboys. Dallas needs to win badly, and will run the ball a lot to do so.
Jones is an amazing athlete. At 6′0″and 220 pounds he’s big enough to run inside, but has the wheels to beat defenders to the corner with ease. Jones put up 96 yards and a TD last week against a staunch Giants D, and he did so on just seven carries. Jones is averaging over nine yards per carry this season, and should be looking at 15-20 total touches on Monday night. Even if Barber is active, Jones will see a dramatically increased role, and should capitalize. Doubters will quickly point out the presence of Tashard Choice, but Jones will get the goal line work and will be a better fantasy play. Plus, his home-run ability could easily see him rip off a 60+yard TD run like he had last year in week three against the Packers.
You drafted Felix in case Barber got hurt and he had a great matchup. Both cases are true here on Monday night, so don’t let yourself be scared off… Jones is about to pop in a major way. Start him confidently.
Honorable mention: (so far the names listed here each week have tremendously outproduced the headliner in this column, so take note) Ahmad Bradshaw vs Tampa Bay, LeSean McCoy vs Kansas City, Beanie Wells vs Indy, Ray Rice vs Cleveland.
Best of luck to you all this weekend, and thanks for stopping by GoHuddleUp!
